XRPUSD: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts – October 19, 2021
Summary: An upwards breakout is expected as most likely for XRP. A third wave up at six degrees may be in its early stages. An increase in upwards momentum is expected.
The data used for this analysis comes from Yahoo Finance XRP-USD.
Weekly charts are on a semi-log scale. The close up daily chart is on an arithmetic scale.
MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
MONTHLY
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The Elliott wave count for XRP begins in December 2015. A complete Elliott five wave impulse can be seen from that low to the all time high, labelled cycle wave I, which lasted 25 months, just over 2 years. Cycle degree waves normally last from one to several years, so this degree of labelling looks correct.
Following a five up should be a three down. The three down is labelled cycle wave II and subdivides best as a double zigzag, which is a common Elliott wave structure.
Cycle wave III may have begun at the low in March 2020. Cycle wave III must move beyond the end of cycle wave I; it must move far enough above the end of cycle wave I at 3.84194 to allow room for cycle wave IV to unfold and remain above cycle wave I price territory. A target is calculated for cycle wave III using a Fibonacci ratio. If this target is wrong, then it would not be high enough; in XRP price history, its third waves within cycle wave I tend to be longer than this.
WEEKLY
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The weekly chart focusses on cycle wave III.
Cycle wave III may only subdivide as an impulse at primary degree. So far primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Primary wave 3 may have begun.
Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse at intermediate degree. So far intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete. Intermediate wave (3) may have begun.
Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse at minor degree. So far minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. If minor wave 2 continues lower, then it may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 0.51271.
This wave count now expects a third wave up at minor, intermediate, primary and cycle degree may be in its early stages. This is a very bullish wave count. A strong increase in upwards momentum may be expected if it is correct.
DAILY
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Within minor wave 3: Minute waves i and ii may be complete and minute wave iii may only subdivide as an impulse.
Minuette waves (i) and (ii) within minute wave iii may be complete.
This Elliott wave analysis expects an increase in upwards momentum to begin very soon.
ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
MONTHLY
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It is possible that cycle wave II may not be complete.
If the main Elliott wave count is invalidated with a new low below 0.51271, then this alternate Elliott wave count may be used.
A target is calculated for cycle wave II to continue lower as a double zigzag. Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 0.00404.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY
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XRP is consolidating with resistance about 1.340 and support about 0.085. On Balance Volume is also within a range of resistance and support. A breakout is required for confidence in the next direction.
DAILY
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At the daily chart level, the consolidation zone looks to be with resistance about 1.28 and 1.40 and support about 0.88. With ADX indicating no clear trend and Stochastics returning from overbought while price reached resistance, a downwards swing may be expected to continue until price finds support and Stochastics reaches oversold. Currently, price is within the zone and Stochastics is neutral.
Watch On Balance Volume carefully over the next few days for a signal. A breakout by On Balance Volume may precede a breakout in price; the direction may be indicated by On Balance Volume.
Published @ 06:37 p.m. ET.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
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