October 28, 2022: ETH-USD (Ethereum) Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
Summary: It is possible that a low may now be in place for Ethereum in June 2022.
A third wave at primary and cycle degrees may have just begun. Confidence would come if price makes a new high above 3,573.96.
A possible target for intermediate wave (3) is calculated at 13,704, and for primary wave 3 at 54,226.
The data used for this analysis comes from Yahoo Finance ETH-USD.
All charts are on a semi-log scale.
MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
MONTHLY
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The monthly chart looks at the entire price history of Ethereum. The Elliott wave count begins at the low of October 2015.
From October 2015 to December 2017 this upwards wave subdivides perfectly as an Elliott wave impulse, labelled cycle wave I. The impulse lasted just over two years, which is within the expected duration for a cycle degree wave, so confidence that this degree of labelling is correct may be had.
Within cycle wave I, note that wave lengths noted on the chart are not Fibonacci ratios but guides to expected behaviour for Ethereum. Prior Ethereum price history exhibits very long third waves and fifth waves which are longer than third waves (with the exception of intermediate wave (5) within primary wave 1 within cycle wave III).
The depth of primary wave 2 and the deepest part of primary wave 4 within cycle wave I are also noted. Ethereum has had deep corrections, but not as deep as other cryptocurrencies, within cycle wave I.
Within cycle wave III, primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 82.8299. If primary wave 2 within cycle wave III is over at the last low, then it would be 0.83 of primary wave 1. This is a normal to be expected depth.
Cycle wave III may only subdivide as an impulse. It must move far enough above the end of cycle wave I to allow room for cycle wave IV to unfold and remain above cycle wave I price territory.
WEEKLY
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Ethereum rarely exhibits Fibonacci ratios between its actionary waves. Within primary wave 1, the ratios are noted on the chart.
The structure of primary wave 1 may be complete. Primary wave 2 may be a complete double zigzag.
Within primary wave 3: Intermediate wave (1) may now be complete and intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 896.109.
*How to read the notations: For example, for minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (3) the notation “3 = 57.97 > 4.236 X 1” is read as minor wave 3 was 57.97 longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.
DAILY
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Within primary wave 3, intermediate wave (1) may be a complete five wave impulse that subdivides perfectly, and all three actionary waves of minor waves 1, 3 and 5 exhibit Fibonacci ratios.
Intermediate wave (2) may complete as a double zigzag. Within the double zigzag, minor wave Y is close to equality in length with minor wave W.
The channel drawn about intermediate wave (2) has been breached by upwards movement. This provides confidence that intermediate wave (2) should be over.
Within intermediate wave (3), a second wave correction may not move beyond its start below 1,209.2782.
This wave count now expects a third wave up at intermediate, primary and cycle degree is in its very early stages. Upwards movement should exhibit a strong increase in momentum and volume as it moves towards the middle of a large third wave, although it may start out slowly.
WEEKLY ALTERNATE
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Primary waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 within the impulse of cycle wave III may be complete.
Primary wave 2 was a deep 0.95 zigzag, lasting 37 weeks. Primary wave 4 may be a complete expanded flat, lasting 58 weeks.
It is common to see fourth waves within commodities and cryptocurrencies that are more brief than their counterpart second waves. Here, primary wave 4 is longer lasting than primary wave 2; this reduces the probability of this wave count to an alternate.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY
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RSI reached oversold on the weekly chart at the low in June 2022. This has only happened once before, in December 2018, which was a sustainable low.
Look for resistance about 1,700.
DAILY
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Prior resistance about 1,360 to 1,400 has been breached. Price has closed above this resistance area with push from volume. This area may now provide support for any deeper pullbacks. Volume supports the Elliott wave count.
There is a bullish reversal pattern at both daily and weekly time frames at the last low. There is a new upwards trend and a long way to go before it becomes extreme.
Published @ 09:50 p.m. ET.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
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