June 19, 2023: NASDAQ Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
Summary: Price is expected to increase within primary wave 1, currently within minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3).
Note that the S&P500 and NASDAQ do not always find highs and lows together. The last all-time high for the S&P500 was on January 4, 2022, whereas the last all-time high for NASDAQ was November 22, 2021.
MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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Cycle wave IV may be complete at the last low.
Within cycle wave V: Intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete and now intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 1 is beginning.
A corrective movement within cycle wave V can not move below its start at 10,092.94.
Within intermediate wave (3): Minute waves i and ii may be complete and now minute wave iii is unfolding.
Within minute wave iii, minuette wave (iii) may be complete at the last high, though it could also move slightly higher. The Elliott wave count is now expecting downwards movement for minuette wave (iv). Minuette wave (iv) can not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 12,227.93.
Intermediate wave (3) has a target calculated at 4.236 times the length of intermediate wave (1) at 14,941. Minute wave iii has a target calculated to reach 1.618 times the length of minute wave i at 14,318.
DAILY CHART
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Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave 1 looks likely to be an incomplete impulse, with minute waves i and ii complete.
Minuette wave (iii) within minute wave iii may be complete at the last high. It has slightly surpassed the initial target of 1.618 times the length of minuette wave (i) at 1,817, and it may move higher still.
With minuette wave (iii) expected to be complete, some downwards or sideways movement is expected for minuette wave (iv). Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 12,227.93.
An Elliott channel is drawn about minute wave iii. The first trend line is drawn from the ends of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then a parallel copy is placed on the end of minuette wave (ii). Minuette wave (iv) may find support about the lower edge, and minuette wave (v) may find resistance about the upper edge. When this channel is breached by downwards movement, then that may be used as indication that minute wave iii may be complete.
ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
ALTERNATE WEEKLY CHART
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This alternate expects the current bullish movement to be a rally within a larger bear market. It is expected to reach just over 14,000 at the end of intermediate wave (C) and primary wave X before continuing the bearish trend for the end of primary wave Y and cycle wave IV.
Within minor wave 3, minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 12,269.55.
ALTERNATE DAILY CHART
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Price has continued to increase, expecting to near the end of intermediate wave (C) within primary wave X.
A target for intermediate wave (C) is calculated at 1.618 fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (A) at 14,326.
Within intermediate wave (C): Minor waves 1 and 2 are expected to be complete and minor wave 3 is expected to see price increase for minute wave iii. Subminuette wave iii within minuette wave (iii) of minute wave iii may be complete at the current high, though it could also move higher.
If minute wave iv is complete, then it may not move into minute wave i price territory below 12,269.55.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
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Price has continued to increase, with support from volume for the last two weeks.
Both MFI and RSI are overbought (but these indicators can reach further overbought when this market has a strong trend) while ADX increases with a bullish trend that is not yet extreme. There is room above before this trend is in danger of ending.
Price is expected to continue to rise, though there may be a corrective movement soon to relieve overbought conditions. This supports the main Elliott wave count.
DAILY CHART
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Price has continued to increase as ADX has now moved into an extreme trend.
RSI has reached overbought twice but does not exhibit divergence.
Price is expected to continue to rise, though there is likely to be some pullback soon.
Overall, this supports the Elliott wave count.
NAAD WEEKLY CHART
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Nasdaq price is making higher lows, but the Nasdaq AD line has made lower lows. This divergence is bearish, and it shows that the rise in price does not have support from rising market breadth.
Published @ 08:16 p.m. ET on June 20, 2023.
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