June 19, 2023: XRP-USD Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
Summary: XRP may have found a sustainable low in November 2022. A third wave at primary and cycle degree may have begun. A possible target is calculated at 8.10, which may be met in June 2025.
For the short term, the Elliott wave count expects upwards movement to at least slightly above 0.6436 before the next larger pullback.
The data used for this analysis comes from CryptoCompare.
Last full written analysis of XRP was on May 30th, 2023.
All charts are on a semi-log scale.
MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
The wave count for XRP is very bullish.
An impulse may be unfolding higher. Within the impulse, cycle waves I and II may both be complete.
Within the impulse of cycle wave III, primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete. This wave count expects a third wave at cycle degree and primary degree may be in its early stages.
If primary wave 2 continues lower as a triple zigzag, then it may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 0.1138. However, it is extremely likely now that primary wave 2 is over. If it were to continue lower, then it would now be longer in duration than cycle wave II one degree higher. Primary wave 2 at its end has already retraced 91% of primary wave 1, so it is unlikely to move deeper.
Wave lengths and durations are noted on this chart. The target for primary wave 3 is recalculated using a Fibonacci ratio. Primary wave 3 within cycle wave III is extremely likely to be extended; if it extends, then it would do so in both price and time. Primary wave 3 may last a Fibonacci 3 years.
Primary wave 1 may have completed as a leading expanding diagonal.
Primary wave 2 may be complete as a double zigzag.
A conservative channel is drawn about the bear market of primary wave 2 to contain all movement. A breach of this channel adds confidence to this wave count.
A new high above 0.5582 also adds confidence. This was the last swing high within the prior bear market. A new high above this point breaks the series of lower highs and lower lows, the basic definition of a downwards trend; this indicates a trend change.
Primary wave 2 may be complete.
Primary wave 3 upwards may have begun. At 8.10 primary wave 3 would reach 4.236 times the length of primary wave 1.
Within the new trend, intermediate wave (1) may be incomplete.
Within intermediate wave (1): Minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete and minute wave i within minor wave 3 may be an incomplete leading expanding diagonal. Within the diagonal, minuette waves (i) through to (iv) may be complete.
Because the diagonal is expanding, minuette wave (v) must be longer than minuette wave (iii) and must end above 0.6436.
Minuette wave (iv) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (ii) below 0.3518.
When intermediate wave (1) may be complete, then intermediate wave (2) should unfold over several weeks and may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 0.2794.
There is an upwards trend that is not extreme, but so far price has been unable to break above strong resistance about 0.51 to 0.55. A clear break above this area would release energy to the upside.
Although volume is rising day on day for the last two days, it remains very light. Overall, the volume profile is a bit mixed and unclear.
What is clear is the bearish signal from On Balance Volume, but it does not agree with the short-term expectation from the Elliott wave count for price to move higher, although the signal occurred on June 15th and may have only indicated the following downwards session for June 16th.
Published @ 08:32 p.m. ET.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.