September 18, 2023: NASDAQ Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
Summary: Recent upwards movement adds confidence to the expectation the bullish trend will resume. A short-term target is calculated at 14,462. A mid-term target is calculated at 14,941.
Note that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ do not always find highs and lows together. The last all-time high for the S&P 500 was on January 4, 2022, whereas the last all-time high for NASDAQ was November 22, 2021.
Last updated monthly charts are here.
MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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Minor wave 4 is labeled a complete zigzag. The low is expected to be sustained.
An Elliott channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique. Draw a line from the end of minor wave 1 to the end of minor wave 3, with a parallel copy placed on the end of minor wave 2. Minor wave 5 may find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.
A second wave corrective movement within minor wave 5 cannot move below 13,161.76.
Intermediate wave (3) has a target calculated at 14,941, which is 4.236 times the length of intermediate wave (1).
DAILY CHART
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Price increases for the beginning of minor wave 5 with overlapping first and second waves at subminuette, minuette, and minute degrees.
Minute waves i and ii are expected to be complete. Minute wave iii is pushing price higher and has a target calculated at 14,463, the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.
Minor wave 5 is expected to move beyond the end of minor wave 3 in order to avoid a truncation.
Price is expected to move up with increased momentum for overlapping third waves at subminuette, minuette, and minute degrees.
ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
ALTERNATE WEEKLY CHART
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This alternate sees cycle wave IV incomplete and expects the current bullish movement to be a rally within a larger bearish trend. For the long term, price is expected to continue down for the end of primary wave Y and cycle wave IV.
Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 4 is labeled complete and subdivides as a zigzag.
A channel is drawn using Elliott’s first technique. Draw a line from the end of minor wave 1 to the end of minor wave 3, with a parallel copy placed on the end of minor wave 2. Minor wave 5, intermediate wave (C), and primary wave X may find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.
A second wave corrective movement within minor wave 5 cannot move below 13,161.76.
Intermediate wave (C) has a target calculated to reach 1.618 times the length of intermediate wave (A) at 14,326.
A low below 12,269.55 will add confidence to this wave count because it is the invalidation of the main wave count.
ALTERNATE DAILY CHART
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Price overall continues to increase with some corrective movements.
Price is expected to move higher with increased momentum for overlapping third waves at subminuette, minuette, and minute degrees.
Minor wave 5 is expected to move beyond the end of minor wave 3 in order to avoid a truncation.
Within minor wave 5, minute wave iii has a target calculated at 14,462, the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
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Price continues to consolidate within support at 12,500 and resistance at 14,250.
An expiry on options last week caused a spike in volume. This does not affect the overall volume profile.
DAILY CHART
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Price moves below resistance at 13,850 with overall increasing volume.
Stochastics declines while price moves lower. A downwards swing is expected to continue towards support at 13,300.
An expiry on options at the end of last week caused a spike in volume. This does not affect the overall volume profile.
The model of Stochastics and support & resistance contradicts both Elliott wave counts.
NAAD WEEKLY CHART
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Nasdaq price is making higher highs, but the Nasdaq AD line has made lower highs. This divergence is bearish, and it shows that the rise in price does not have support from rising market breadth.
Nasdaq AD line is making new lows while price makes higher lows. This bearish divergence continues back to 2009.
Published @ 10:45 p.m. ET.
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