October 9, 2023: NASDAQ Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
Summary: Upwards movement is expected to the next target at 17,202.
Note that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ do not always find highs and lows together. The last all-time high for the S&P 500 was on January 4, 2022, whereas the last all-time high for NASDAQ was November 22, 2021.
Last updated monthly charts are here.
BULLISH WAVE COUNT
The corrective movement for intermediate wave (4) within primary wave 1 may be complete.
If intermediate wave (4) continues lower, then it cannot enter intermediate wave (1) price territory below 11,210.38.
An Elliott channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. Draw a line from the end of intermediate wave (2) to the end of intermediate wave (4), with a parallel copy placed on the end of intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (5) may find resistance at the upper edge of the channel.
Intermediate wave (4) has a target calculated at 12,827.22, the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3).
Intermediate wave (4) may be complete as a zigzag.
Intermediate wave (5) may have begun. At 17,202 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3).
BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
This alternate sees cycle wave IV incomplete and expects the current bullish movement to be a rally within a larger bearish trend. For the long term, price is expected to continue down for the end of primary wave Y and cycle wave IV.
A channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. Draw a line from the end of minor wave 2 to the end of minor wave 4, with a parallel copy placed at the end of minor wave 3. Minor wave 5 may find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.
Intermediate wave (C) has a target calculated to reach 1.618 times the length of intermediate wave (A) at 14,326.
Once primary wave X is labeled complete, a low below 12,269.55 will add confidence to this wave count because it is the invalidation of the main wave count.
This wave count sees minor wave 4 subdividing as a complete double zigzag.
If minor wave 4 continues lower, it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 11,210.38.
Price consolidates with declining range and volume.
Stochastics failed to enter oversold, and price failed to reach support at 12,500. An upwards swing may occur towards resistance at 14,250.
Price increases past resistance at 13,300 with a slight push from volume.
ADX does not indicate a trend, and Stochastics has returned from oversold. An upwards swing may occur towards resistance at 13,850.
NAAD WEEKLY CHART
Nasdaq price is making higher highs, but the Nasdaq AD line has made lower highs. This divergence is bearish, and it shows that the rise in price does not have support from rising market breadth.
Nasdaq AD line is making new lows while price makes higher lows. This bearish divergence continues back to 2009.
Published @ 11:50 p.m. ET.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.