November 14, 2023: NASDAQ Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
A new Elliott wave count is presented today.
Summary: Price is expected to decline for the short term towards 13,025.
Note that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ do not always find highs and lows together. The last all-time high for the S&P 500 was on January 4, 2022, whereas the last all-time high for NASDAQ was November 22, 2021.
Last updated monthly charts are here.
BULLISH WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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Primary wave 2 within cycle wave V is labelled complete at the October 22nd low. Price now increases for primary wave 3.
Primary wave 3 has a target calculated at 19,588, the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1.
Within primary wave 3, any corrective movement cannot move below 12,543.86.
DAILY CHART
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Within primary wave 3, intermediate wave (1) is labelled complete at the November 13th high.
Intermediate wave (2) is now expected to pull price lower. A target is calculated at 13,025.66, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1). If this target is met and price continues lower, then intermediate wave (2) cannot move below the start of intermediate wave (1) at 12.543.86.
WEEKLY ALTERNATE CHART
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This alternate sees primary wave 2 as an incomplete double combination.
Downwards movement is expected to resume for the end of intermediate wave (Y) within primary wave 2.
Within intermediate wave (Y), minor wave B may continue higher. Minor wave B may continue up to 14,884.42, where it would reach twice the length of minor wave A, which is the maximum acceptable length for a B wave within an expanded flat.
Primary wave 2 is expected to pull price lower. A target is calculated at 11,756.02, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1.
Primary wave 2 cannot move below the start of primary wave 1 at 10,092.94.
BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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This wave count sees cycle wave IV incomplete, currently moving lower for primary wave Y within a double zigzag or double combination.
Primary wave X is labelled complete at the July 16th high, subdividing as an expanded flat.
Primary wave Y pulls price lower, currently within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (A).
Any corrective movement within intermediate wave (A) cannot move above 14,446.55
DAILY CHART
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Within intermediate wave (A), minor wave 2 is labelled complete at the November 13th high.
Price now expected to decline for minor wave 3.
If minor wave 2 continues, then it cannot move above the start of minor wave 1 at 14,446.55.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
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Price increases with a push from volume on last week’s candlestick.
Price increases along with Stochastics. Look for resistance 14,250.
DAILY CHART
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Volume declines as price increases.
Today’s candlestick ends with what is labelled a measuring gap. This gap has a target calculated at 14,463.51, which just overshoots resistance at 14,400.
ADX now increases with a bullish trend. This supports the Elliott wave count, expecting increased upwards movement.
NAAD WEEKLY CHART
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Nasdaq price is making higher highs, but the Nasdaq AD line has made lower highs. This divergence is bearish, and it shows that the rise in price does not have support from rising market breadth.
Nasdaq AD line is making new lows while price makes higher lows. This bearish divergence continues back to 2009.
Published @ 08:55 p.m. ET.
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1. Always trade with stops.
2. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
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