October 31, 2023: NASDAQ Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
A new Elliott wave count is considered.
Summary: Price is expected to continue downwards, towards 11,756.
Note that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ do not always find highs and lows together. The last all-time high for the S&P 500 was on January 4, 2022, whereas the last all-time high for NASDAQ was November 22, 2021.
Last updated monthly charts are here.
BULLISH WAVE COUNT
Downwards movement has remained above the prior invalidation point for the main wave count in last analysis, but is now looking too large to be a smaller degree correction. This downwards movement is now labelled primary wave 2.
Primary wave 1 is labeled complete at the July 16th high. Price is now expected to continue lower for primary wave 2.
Within primary wave 2, minor wave 3 within intermediate wave (C) is expected to continue lower.
Primary wave 2 has a target calculated at 11,756, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1.
Primary wave 2 cannot move below the start of primary wave 1 at 10.092.94.
Overall, cycle wave V within Supercycle wave (I) is expected to pull price higher.
Primary wave 2 is currently subdividing as an incomplete zigzag.
Within primary wave 2, intermediate wave (C ) is pulling price lower, currently within minor wave 3.
Price is expected to find a bounce for minute wave ii.
Minute wave ii has a target calculated at 13,267, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. Minute wave ii cannot move above the start of minute wave i at 13,714.14.
Once minute wave ii is labeled complete, overlapping third waves at minute and minor degrees are expected to pull price lower with increasing momentum.
BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
This wave count sees cycle wave IV incomplete, currently moving lower for primary wave Y within a double zigzag or double combination.
Primary wave X is labeled complete at the July 16th high, subdividing as an expanded flat.
Within primary wave Y, intermediate wave (A) pulls price lower, currently within minute wave iii of minor wave 1.
If minute wave ii continues any higher, then it cannot move above the start of minute wave i at 14,446.55.
Within primary wave Y, price may be declining with overlapping first and second waves at minute, minuette, and subminuette degrees.
Price is now expected to continue lower with increased momentum.
Within minuette wave (iii) of minute wave iii, subminuette wave ii is expected to pull price higher for a bounce.
Subminuette wave ii has a target calculated to reach 13,267, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of subminuette wave i.
Subminuette wave ii cannot move above the start of subminuette wave i at 13,714.14.
Price continues to decline overall.
ADX now increases with a bearish trend.
This trend is not yet extreme, with RSI and Money Flow Index both neutral and exhibiting no divergence. This trend has a ways to go before it may be in danger of ending.
Price begins to increase with declining volume.
The volume profile remains bearish, with weaker volume on bullish candlesticks, suggesting weakness.
ADX continues to increase with a bearish trend.
This trend is not yet extreme, though RSI, Money Flow Index, and Stochastics exhibit bullish divergence. This trend may find a corrective movement soon to resolve this divergence.
NAAD WEEKLY CHART
Nasdaq price is making higher highs, but the Nasdaq AD line has made lower highs. This divergence is bearish, and it shows that the rise in price does not have support from rising market breadth.
Nasdaq AD line is making new lows while price makes higher lows. This bearish divergence continues back to 2009.
Published @ 08:00 p.m. ET.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.