November 7, 2023: NASDAQ Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
Summary: Price is expected to continue downwards, towards 11,756.
Note that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ do not always find highs and lows together. The last all-time high for the S&P 500 was on January 4, 2022, whereas the last all-time high for NASDAQ was November 22, 2021.
Last updated monthly charts are here.
BULLISH WAVE COUNT
Primary wave 2 is currently labelled an incomplete double zigzag.
Price is expected to continue lower, completing intermediate wave (Y) within primary wave 2.
Primary wave 2 has a target calculated at 11,756, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1.
Primary wave 2 cannot move below the start of primary wave 1 at 10.092.94.
Cycle wave V is expected to pull price higher with a target calculated at 25,197, where it would reach equality in length with cycle wave III.
Within intermediate wave (Y) of primary wave 2: Minor wave B (now labelled complete) has pulled price higher and minor wave C is now expected to pull price lower for the end of intermediate wave (Y) and primary wave 2.
If minor wave B continues to increase, then it cannot move above the start of minor wave A at 13,714.14. If price moves above this point, then the alternate bullish wave count (below) will be used.
WEEKLY ALTERNATE CHART
This alternate sees primary wave 2 labelled complete at the October 22nd low and price now increasing for primary wave 3.
If price makes a high above 13,714.14 (the invalidation for the main bullish chart), then there will be added confidence in this wave count.
Any second wave corrective movement within primary wave 3 cannot move below 12,543.86.
Primary wave 3 is expected to pull price higher with a target calculated at 19,588, the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1.
BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
This wave count sees cycle wave IV incomplete, currently moving lower for primary wave Y within a double zigzag or double combination.
Primary wave X is labelled complete at the July 16th high, subdividing as an expanded flat.
Primary wave Y pulls price lower, currently within minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (A).
Any corrective movement within intermediate wave (A) cannot move above 14,446.55
Within intermediate wave (A), minor wave 3 is expected to pull price lower with overlapping third waves at minuette, minute, and minor degrees.
Minuette wave (ii) is labelled complete at the November 6th high.
If minuette wave (ii) continues, then it cannot move above the start of minuette wave (i) at 13,714.14.
Price increases with declining volume.
ADX declines while Stochastics returns from oversold and price moves away from support at 12,500. A downwards swing may have ended and a new upwards swing may have begun. Look for resistance 14,250.
Overall, volume has been pushing price higher although the last two completed sessions show a little weakness.
The model of Stochastics plus support and resistance will be used at the weekly time frame at this time.
NAAD WEEKLY CHART
Nasdaq price is making higher highs, but the Nasdaq AD line has made lower highs. This divergence is bearish, and it shows that the rise in price does not have support from rising market breadth.
Nasdaq AD line is making new lows while price makes higher lows. This bearish divergence continues back to 2009.
Published @ 08:26 p.m. ET.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.