March 24, 2023: EURUSD Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Video and Charts
Summary: The bigger picture for Euro expects overall upwards movement for the long term, most likely to not make a new high above 1.60380.
For the short term, a pullback may continue lower to a target zone from 1.01211 – 1.01079. Thereafter, a strong third wave up may begin.
Today minor wave X may have completed as an expanding flat. Intermediate (2) will most likely continue sharply downwards.
Quarterly and monthly charts were last updated here.
The weekly chart focusses on the end of Super Cycle wave (b) and the start of Super Cycle wave (c).
Within Super Cycle wave (c), cycle wave a must subdivide as a five wave motive structure. Primary wave 1 within cycle wave a would be most likely incomplete.
Within primary wave 1: Intermediate wave (1) may be over at the last high and now intermediate wave (2) may continue lower to find support about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1) at 1.01079.
Intermediate wave (1) lasted 18 weeks, 3 weeks short of a Fibonacci 21. Intermediate wave (2) may be expected to last about a Fibonacci 13 or 21 weeks in total, give or take about 2 either side of these numbers.
The most recent weekly candle has been labelled as the end of minor wave X.
A best fit channel has been drawn to encompass all of the previous bear market and recent peak. Price this week found resistance at the upper edge of this channel. This supports minor wave X being complete.
Minor wave Y is most likely to unfold as a zig-zag.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 0.95364.
The daily chart focusses on intermediate waves (1) and (2).
Intermediate wave (2) may be unfolding as a double zigzag. Within the double, the first zigzag may be complete and is labelled minor wave W. The double is joined by a corrective structure in the opposite direction, an expanding flat labelled minor wave X, which may also be complete. The second zigzag in the double is labelled minor wave Y has just begun. The purpose of a second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough. If minor wave Y ends at the target zone, then this purpose would be achieved.
Last week’s expanding flat for minor X was invalidated with upwards price action. A new expanding flat has been labelled with minute c completing at the 2.618 extension of minute a.
No bullish invalidation is given. There is no Elliott wave rule which states a minimum nor maximum length for X waves. Therefore, minor wave X does not have an upwards invalidation level. Technical analysis supports minor wave X being complete.
A target is calculated at two degrees. At 1.01079 intermediate wave (2) would reach the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1). At 1.01211 minor wave Y would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave W. This gives a 132 pip target zone.
The hourly chart focusses on the end of minor X and the start of minor Y.
Minor wave Y has a high probability to subdivide as a zigzag. Within the zigzag, minute wave a may be beginning. When minute wave a is complete, then a bounce or consolidation for minute wave b should unfold over a few days and may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 1.09296.
Within minute wave a: Minuette (i) is labelled complete as an impulse and minuette (ii) should unfold as a corrective structure and may not move beyond the start of minuette (i) at 1.09296.
When minuette wave (ii) is complete, a target may then be calculated for minuette (iii).
For the short term, this wave count expects downwards movement over the next week.
VOLUME WEEKLY CHART
The volume profile is slightly bullish on the weekly chart. Long wicks show pressure in both directions, thus more weight should be given to the daily volume profile.
On balance volume shows a weak trading range with no signal.
Money flow remains neutral.
This week’s candlestick showed a long bearish upper wick. With recent long wicks in each direction, a breakout from support or resistance should signal the next movement.
Price recently broke through resistance at 1.075. Now resistance sits overhead at 1.100 and below support is at 1.050. If price breaks through 1.050, support remains thin below. With the most recent bearish candlestick, downward movement is more likely.
Stochastics remains neutral. If Stochastics reaches oversold before price finds support, then price may not reach as low as 0.965.
VOLUME DAILY CHART
Over the past few days, volume increased with downwards movement and decreased with upwards movement, indicating bearish pressure.
Today volume showed a very slight decrease, but overall it has increased with the recent downward movements on the last two candlesticks. Over the past week, volume decreased while prices rose, giving support to the bearish wave count.
Although money flow exhibited bullish divergence, this divergence is weak due to the low of the second pivot only being a few pips below the first. The bearish signals from other technicals outweigh this signal.
On balance volume shows no new range, and trend lines recently breached lowers the significance of their strength.
There is no clear trend at either the daily or weekly time frame.
A head and shoulders candlestick pattern has been noted on the chart, highlighted by the left shoulder (LHS), head (H), and right shoulder (RHS). A neckline was drawn from the bases of the heads where the shoulders connect. A candlestick closing below this neckline would be a breakout from the pattern.
A shooting star developed at the last swing high and was followed through with a large bearish candlestick, a very bearish signal.
If support at 1.050 is broken on a closing basis, then downwards momentum is expected for the longer term. If resistance is broken above 1.100, then upwards momentum is expected.
For the short term, this chart looks bearish, supporting the Elliott Wave count.
Edited @ 11:40 p.m. ET on March 27, 2023.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.