September 28, 2023: USDJPY Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – Charts and Video
Summary: The bigger picture for the USDJPY expects overall downwards movement to around 83.245. Another alternate is presented that also expects downwards movement to a target at 9.0019.
For the short term, the recent bull trend is expected to be complete with price now expected to decline.
Technicals heavily support a top in October 2022, so further bearish movement is expected.
Quarterly and Monthly charts are updated here.
The weekly chart focuses on primary wave C within cycle wave a and the recent bearish price action for primary wave A within cycle wave b.
Within primary wave A of cycle wave b, intermediate wave (2) is labeled complete at the September 27th high, finding resistance at the upper edge of the Elliott channel.
If intermediate wave (2) does continue higher, then it cannot move above the start of intermediate wave (1) at 151.942.
Minor wave C slightly overshot the previous target calculated at 146.934. The structure is labeled as a complete impulse.
Price is now expected to move down for intermediate wave (3) within primary wave A.
The daily chart focuses on intermediate wave (2) within primary wave A.
Minor wave C is labeled a complete impulse, with an extended third wave.
An Elliott channel is drawn around intermediate wave (2). Draw a line from the beginning of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B with a parallel copy placed on the end of minor wave A. If minor wave C continues higher, then it may find resistance at the upper edge of this channel. A breach of this channel by downwards movement would add confidence in a trend change and this Elliott wave count.
The volume profile looks bearish, with volume decreasing with bullish price movement.
Price moves above support at 138, with ADX indicating a bullish trend that is not yet extreme.
ADX and RSI still have room to move upwards, with no support or resistance overhead. This supports the Elliott wave count for more short-term upwards price movement. However, range upwards could be limited with declining ATR and volume.
Volume overall declines as price rises, with an increase in volume for the last downwards session. The volume profile is bearish.
Price increases with ADX indicating a bullish trend that is not yet extreme.
Published @ 11:25 p.m. ET.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.